MSI 2026 Results Hint at Worlds Contenders, Not Champions
Analysis of past League of Legends Mid-Season Invitationals shows winning MSI rarely predicts a Worlds victory, but top-four finishes strongly indicate
Hanwha Life Esports beat Bilibili Gaming 3-2 to win the 2026 Mid-Season Invitational, securing its place at Worlds 2026. History suggests, however, that this MSI victory does not make HLE the favorite for the Summoner's Cup.
According to an analysis by Esports Insider, only one MSI champion in ten completed seasons has gone on to win Worlds in the same year. SK Telecom T1 accomplished the double in 2016. Every other MSI winner since the tournament's 2015 inception has fallen short, with most exiting in the semifinals or earlier.
Winning MSI is a poor predictor of Worlds success
The record for MSI champions is clear. Edward Gaming won in 2015 but lost in the Worlds quarterfinals. SKT won again in 2017 but lost the Worlds final to Samsung Galaxy. Royal Never Give Up won MSI in 2018, 2021, and 2022 but never advanced beyond the Worlds quarterfinals in those years.
G2 Esports reached the Worlds final after its 2019 MSI win. More recently, JD Gaming and Gen.G both followed MSI titles with Worlds semifinal exits. Even Gen.G's dominant 2025 season ended with a Worlds semifinal loss to KT Rolster after beating T1 in the MSI final.
MSI champions have reached the Worlds semifinals 60% of the time. Their rate of winning the whole tournament, however, sits at just 10%.
MSI excels at identifying Worlds contenders
While winning MSI is a surprisingly poor indicator, performing well at the tournament is a strong signal. Of the 40 top-four finishes at MSI between 2015 and 2025, 19 teams went on to reach the Worlds semifinals that same year.
MSI finalists have an even stronger record. Twelve of the 20 teams that reached an MSI final in that period later made the Worlds semifinals. The analysis notes there is some selection bias, as these are already among the world's strongest teams. Yet, in every season since MSI began, at least one top-four finisher has reached the Worlds final.
The expanded format provides a clearer preview
A significant shift occurred in 2023 when Riot Games expanded the MSI format to include more teams from top regions. This change means more of the world's best teams now compete at MSI, making its results a better preview for Worlds.
The data since the format change is striking. From 2023 to 2025, eight of the 12 MSI top-four finishers reached the Worlds semifinals, a rate of 66.7%. This is a sharp increase from the 39.3% rate (11 of 28 teams) recorded between 2015 and 2022.
Every MSI finalist from the past three years has reached at least the Worlds semifinals.
| Year | MSI Finalist | Worlds Result |
|---|---|---|
| 2023 | JD Gaming | Semifinals |
| 2023 | Bilibili Gaming | Semifinals |
| 2024 | Gen.G | Semifinals |
| 2024 | Bilibili Gaming | Semifinals |
| 2025 | Gen.G | Semifinals |
| 2025 | T1 | Champion |
The source calls this a tiny sample size, noting three years of results are not enough to establish a rule. So far, however, the expanded MSI aligns much more closely with Worlds outcomes.
The curious case of T1
A notable pattern involves T1. The last three League of Legends World Champions all finished near the top of MSI earlier in the same year without winning it. T1 finished third at MSI in both 2023 and 2024 before winning those years' World Championships. In 2025, T1 finished second at MSI before clinching a third consecutive title.
The analysis suggests this is less about losing MSI improving a team's chances and more about "T1 being T1."
For 2026, the MSI top-four comprises champion Hanwha Life Esports, runner-up Bilibili Gaming, third-place LYON, and fourth-place G2 Esports. Based on over a decade of data, at least one of these teams is likely to make a very deep run at Worlds. MSI may not reveal the eventual champion, but it consistently builds the shortlist of genuine contenders.
